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Women in War and Crime

Posted 29 Mar 2012 by Kashfia Zaman printer icon permanent link
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​The Women Under Siege web site was launched on 8 February. The project documents in meticulous and often grueling detail how rape and sexualized violence are used as tools in warfare and mass genocide. The web site highlights the often complex issue of women and violence, something that has also featured in several other recent news articles and commentaries.

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A recent commentary on these issues by Diana Wueger portrays the predominant view on war being inherently only about men despite the direct participation of women throughout the years. According to a 2009 report, “men are more likely to die during conflicts, whereas women die more often of indirect causes after the conflict is over." Wueger also highlights the contribution of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in establishing systematic rape as a crime against humanity. Women are a part of the society and yet they are always excluded from pivotal matters that revolve around running the country. Hence, according to Gini Reticker, a renowned female documentary filmmaker, women play an essential part maintaining post-war peace through assisting in the disarming of former combatants. Wueger, concludes the article by stating that escape from the cycle of war needs drastic change in our perception of the role that women play during and after conflict.
 
In a follow-up article, Wueger highlights how the contribution of female combatants goes unacknowledged. In particular she specifies how the large number of American female combatants in Iraq is more than in all wars since World War II. Wueger articulates the suffering that women veterans go through and shows how considerably more than male veterans experience unemployment, depression and divorce. She also, adds that 40% of child soldiers are girls who endure all the pain that any soldier goes through during war in addition to frequently being sexually assaulted and enduring other health issues. Yet, as she points out, these facts are usually overlooked during and after conflicts.
 
What I found interesting about both articles is the author’s passion for the need to change our perceptions of women’s involvement in the patriarchal domain of war. She succeeded wonderfully in articulating the multiple roles women play during warfare and in its aftermath. . Her themes will be nothing new to women who have experienced war directly. Whoever has no firsthand experience probably has never even thought about how women actually experience warfare. Hence, there is a profound need for much greater awareness of how, women, in particular, can play active roles in peace-building. 
 
I loved it when she wrote about how articles related to women’s participation in war and its aftermath never interest the chauvinists. The achievements of women always have been achieved after a struggle against chauvinism. No matter how successful a woman is, her triumph can be dismissed based on the premise of her gender. If women all over the world took a stand and started voicing their feelings against such double standards and chauvinism then there is a hope that a just and true equality could come into existence.
 
The issue is not just one of militaries using rape against the civilian population. Women who serve in the military can also be victims of violence and sexual assault. Recently, a group of 28 plaintiffs sued the Pentagon in order to bring about changes in the Uniform Code of Military Justice. The group claims to have been sexually assaulted by their fellow soldiers. They blame former US defense secretaries Donald Rumsfeld (2001 till 2006) and Robert Gates (2006 till 2011), for a culture of punishment against the women and men who report sex crimes and a failure to prosecute the offenders. The lawsuit initially started off with 17 plaintiffs on 15-02-2011   which now includes 28 victims.

Susan Burke, a renowned US litigator who has fought many cases in both federal and state courts, is leading the case for veterans. She has been contacted by 400 women  who have filed lawsuits alleging sexual assault. However, the department of defense filed a motion to dismiss the case by referring a law established in 1950 which states that” the government is not reliable for injuries sustained by active duty personnel”. In the end it was dismissed on 14-12-2011 by Judge Liam O’Grady on the basis that judiciary must not interfere with military discipline. However, an appeal is expected.
 
A new lawsuit of military sexual assault was filed on 6 March 2012 by Susan Burke with the U.S. District Court in Washington D.C, fighting for 8 current and former U.S. service members against the U.S. Marine Barracks in Washington D.C. Two major plaintiffs of the lawsuit are Ariana Klay and Elle Helmer. Klay is a Naval Academy graduate and Iraq war veteran who says that she was gang-raped at the Barracks in August 2010 while Helmer is a former Barracks public information officer who says that she was raped by a superior officer at the Barracks in March 2006.
 
According to the Department of Defense's Sexual Assault Preventions and Response Office (SAPRO) in 2010, there were 3158 reports of sexually assault  within the US military, and more than 19 000 unreported cases have been assumed to exist. A recent article states that:
 
“According to the US Department of Veterans Affairs, the rate of sexual assault on women in the military is twice that in the civilian population. A Government Accountability Office report concluded that most victims stay silent because of ‘the belief that nothing would be done; fear of ostracism, harassment, or ridicule and concern that peers would gossip. While a civilian rape victim is ensured confidential advice from his or her doctors, lawyers and advocates, the only access a military rape survivor has is to a chaplain. Compared with a 40 per cent arrest rate for sex crimes among civilians, only eight per cent of investigated cases in the military lead to prosecution.”
 
Anu Bhagwati, Executive Director of the Service Women’s Action Network says "Unlike in the civilian world, a military rape survivor cannot quit his or her job and move on".  Veterans who have experienced this horrific incident undergo major emotional trauma and have known to suffer from post traumatic depression. Their whole lives are changed,   and confidence in their own sense of judgement is often shattered. To make things worse, they are criticized and stigmatized if they report their assault. They may have to face the person who assaulted them and betrayed their trust everyday till their tenure is over.
 
Female military veterans more often than not face many challenges once they return home. They find it difficult to reintegrate with their regular life as it’s harder for them to find jobs, lower level of income, homelessness and also little time to bond with self having to take care of their home, children, spouse and family. These stresses combined with badly or untreated post-traumatic stress disorder, lead some female veterans to commit suicide. Military sexual trauma is a further contributing factor – especially so if victims feel that they will be discriminated against for reporting an attack by a fellow soldier.
 
Women are also at risk from criminal violence unconnected with the military. For example, a recent article highlights violence against women in Venezuela.   Out of 19,000 homicides that occur there in a year, about 1 in 10 of the victims are women. In “Armed Societies, Another Tragedy for Women” Humberto Márquez writes about how Kairobis Arcia was shot in the head by her drunken husband. She went to visit her husband in jail and fell into an argument with him who was accompanied by illicitly acquired drugs and alcohol.  An inmate is not supposed to have drugs or a gun, let alone be able to murder his wife. The incident itself highlights the vulnerable situation of the country. Venezuela's attorney general, Luisa Ortega, stated that in 2010 over 96,145 complaints of “gender violence” more often known as violence against women  have been filed. This may well be the tip of the iceberg. Venezuelan women’s organizations have stated that very many domestic violence incidents go unreported.
 
It is though important not to portray women as being mere victims of violence. Just a few months ago Ellen Johnson Sirleaf was announced as being the latest Nobel Peace Prize laureate. She is President of Liberia and won her prize for her non-violent movement for women’s full participation and safety in Liberia’s peace-building work. She is the only elected female head of state in Africa. Sirleaf shared the prize with two other women who have been active for peace.  Leymah Gbowee is a peace activist and a key person in bringing the second Liberian Civil War to an end. She motivated women try to achieve peace through non-violent protest and prayers for peace. Tawakkul Karman is a journalist and human rights activist in Yemen. She is the head of Yemeni organization Women Journalists without Chains and works for the release of political prisoners in her country. These three women serve as powerful reminders that across the world women act as agents for positive change who actively reduce violence and persecution.
 
Women are also perpetrators of violence. Four cases in Latin America show how some women can rise to prominence in the usually male-dominated world of organized crime.  Sandra Avila Beltran, also known as Queen of the Pacific, has good looks and an elite family lineage which help her rise in the world of drug trafficking. Her romantic involvement with crime boss Espinoza Ramirez,a top Colombian drug trafficker wanted by THE U.S. authorities,  led to the unification of Mexico’s Sinaloa gang and Colombia's Norte del Valle cartel.   She was arrested on 28-09-2007.  In Jan’12, USA’s second attempt to get her extradited to the states got rejected by the judge Jesus Chavez on the base that she would get the same penalties in Mexico as she would in Florida.Enedina Arellano Felix is another infamous lady of Mexico who happens to be a distant relative of Avila Beltran. She took over the leadership of the Tijuana Cartel after all her brothers had been killed or arrested in the year 2000 and handles the money laundering.  Veronica Mireya Moreno Carreón, aka, “La Flaca” (the skinny lady), is one of the main bosses of the Mexican Zeta drug trafficking gang She was caught on 12-09-2011 . Men across the world are the main perpetrators of violent crime. But these cases illustrate that women can also be actively involved – perhaps more so as people who encourage and enable violent acts committed by men.
 
In order to prevent violence against women we need to work with all three groups of people. A clear focus must be upon changing the behavior of the men who in the military and out commit acts of violence, many of which are sexualized. We need to support women who act to transform their societies. Last, we need to understand more about women’s role in perpetuating violence.

 
Sources and further reading
 
More on Mexican femal crime  bosses can be found: here, here, here and here.
Rick Tringale, Maricella Guzman, Kate Weber and Michelle Jones are a few of those who have spoken about their experiences of veing victimised during their training in the military. More about their story can be found here.  My Duty to Speak is a website that helps more veterans who have been violated come forward with their stories and also get the help that they need.
 
Last year in the U.S. District Court in Alexandria, A lawsuit was filed against Rumsfeld and Gates, as they were accused of cultivating a culture that enabled rapists to flourish while victims were punished for coming forward against their rapists. However, the case was dismissed. One of the plaintiffs, Rebekah Havrilla has something to say about how she felt after the verdict was given on the lawsuit here.
 
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), has stated that domestic violence-related murders of women are mostly due to factors related to the environment and society people live in such as male partner unemployment, firearm ownership, drug and alcohol use, the threat of separation, sexual jealousy, extreme male dominance and other risk factors. Venezuela has one of the highest homicide ratse in the world, leaving behind countries like El Salvador, Honduras and Jamaica due to widespread of organized crime and street violence.  Venezuela’s defense manufacturer CAVIM produces over 36 million rounds of ammunition and more is imported as to meet demand (see here). 
 
Diana Wueger’s interesting write ups on women’s contribution to wars and helping to end them can be found here, and here.
 
More on veterans’ lawsuit against Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates can be found here and here. Susan Burke is not willing to give up her struggle.  A new lawsuit has been filed in Washignton D.C., see here and here.
 
An insightful read on the challenges female veterans face upon returning home and ways to prevent suicidee can be found here.

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Leymah Gbowee and Tawakul Karman  were honored with the 2011 Nobel Prize for their relentless effort in bringing justice to the people of their country, especially women, you can read more here, here and here.

The documentary Women, War And Peace was made by 9 female producers and it may well be of interest, see here. 

A new guide to monitoring the arms trade

Posted 17 Feb 2012 by Nicholas Marsh printer icon permanent link
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A new report will be an invaluable resource for researchers on the arms trade 
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Sergio Finardi and Peter Danssaert have over the past few years produced some of the most meticulously researched and detailed work on arms transfers. Their uncompromising approach to finding information on movements of arms – looking especially at the intricate links between all the various companies, individuals and government agencies that partake in even the most mundane arms transfer - has been the foundation of much of the activism on the arms trade.
 
Sergio and Peter have co-authored a guide to monitoring and reporting methods for arms transfers. It’s just been published and contains extensive explanations of the terminology used to report the arms trade.  Anyone who is serious about researching the trade and look directly at the various data sources available needs to have a copy of this report on their hard drive. I’ve been working on this for over ten years now and I’m sure that I’ll keep consulting it.
 
One of the problems in raising awareness and getting more people involved in research on the arms trade is that the subject quickly gets technical and people are confronted by a withering array of terminology, caveats and sometimes contradictory sources. Peter and Sergio have done a great service by distilling some of their accumulated knowledge and placing it in the report.
 
 
Additional arms trade material published by IPIS can be found here.

Inaccurate analysis of satellite images of Sudan (Updated)

Posted 09 Feb 2012 by Nicholas Marsh printer icon permanent link
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​Satellite Sentinel has published a report containing a human security alert which warns of an imminent attack by Sudan Armed Forces which have ‘encircled’ the Kauda valley. However, the analysis of military forces contained in the report is vague, inaccurate and exaggerated.
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My colleague Øystein Rolandsen, an all-round expert on all things conflict related in Sudan, sent me a recent report by the Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP). Entitled Siege: Evidence of SAF Encirclement of the Kauda Valley it was published on 25 January 2012. The report contains a “human security alert” and mentions that Sudan armed forces have a limited period of time to “launch a full scale assault on the Kauda Valley and its surrounding region.”

I am though skeptical of most of the specific claims based upon satellite imagery made in the body of the report. I’ll go through some them one by one.
 
Currently, Sudanese road crews are, in one area, within 10 kilometers of completing the roads required to deploy heavy armor into the Kauda Valley.
 
The images presented do indicate that some construction work has been undertaken on the roads. But the images aren’t very specific. However, except in very exceptional circumstances you don’t need roads in order to deploy heavy armour – ie main battle tanks. They have tracks and can travel cross country. Almost all of Sudan’s tanks are Russian T54/5 and Chinese Type 59 models which could originally be fitted with a snorkel to allow them to ford rivers. So it’s difficult to see how construction work on the road is required in order to imminently deploy heavy armour in the valley.
 
Improved roads are nevertheless important and might well assist in deploying military forces in the valley – in particular truckloads or infantry and equipment, and towed artillery which are mentioned later in the report (see below). General Robert Barrow, former Marine Corps commandant, coined the phrase that “Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics.” But to convincingly argue that the road works actually represent an imminent threat  we’d need to also see evidence of significant military forces in the area that would require use of the roads. The report purports to make that case, but as shown below, it is not convincing.
 
In addition, SSP has observed SAF efforts to lengthen and level the airstrip at Talodi, which is approximately 50 kilometers/30 miles from the Kauda Valley. The extension and leveling of the airstrip, indicated by the presence of vehicles consistent with construction machinery, increased the length of the strip to 1800 meters from its initial length of 1100 meters. The Talodi airstrip is now capable of accommodating Antonov-type bombers and other attack aircraft which will be able to engage in high-tempo operations on the Kauda Valley from that base.
 
It does look from the satellite images as if the airstrip has been repaired and lengthened. This would enable larger aircraft to use it – perhaps AN-26 cargo planes. Sudanese AN-26s have been used as bombers by pushing ordnance out the back when targeting towns and refugee camps, they have limited use in a military offensive due to their inaccuracy. Sudan has dedicated fixed wing ground attack aircraft – 15 Chinese A5s and 14 Soviet SU 25s. However, these smaller aircraft would be able to take off with the original 1100m runway. Sudan also possesses attack helicopters, particularly 31 Mi-24 Hinds (see below). However, they don’t need a runway, let alone a 1800 meter one, in order to operate.  
 
More importantly, if the airfield had been upgraded so that ground attack aircraft (or modified Antonovs) could be based there I’d expect to see more construction of infrastructure. The aircraft need to be armed, refueled and maintained. The people doing that and the pilots need somewhere to sleep and eat. As it is there isn’t any sign from the images presented that the infrastructure has been developed. So it looks unlikely that the work done on the airfield was necessary in order for it to serve as a base for ground attack aircraft “to engage in high-tempo operations on the Kauda Valley from that base.”
 
The report then describes military equipment around the town of Kadugli:
 
Recent imagery shows active helicopter gunships at the Kadugli airbase. Also, main battle tanks, apparent mechanized infantry units, and occupied artillery positions are clearly visible at the SAF 14th Division headquarters in Kadguli. With the newly elevated roads, all of these units will soon be capable of rapid deployment to the Kauda Valley.
 
The caption on the satellite image states that three of the four helicopters are “consistent with MI-24 Hind gunships” which is a much weaker statement than “clearly visible”. The caption for the other helicopter is that it is “consistent with” an MI-8 transport helicopter. I agree with the MI-8 label due to the shape of the shadow of the rear of the fuselage. As an aside I have difficulty identifying the remaining three as being MI-24s. The MI-24 has distinctive wings on each side of its fuselage and I can’t identify them in the images. However, the resolution of the photograph presented certainly isn’t enough for me to state whether they are or are not MI-24s. Something which I assume motivated the label that the images are merely “consistent with MI-24s.” 
 
As for the headquarters, there is no clear evidence for the identification of “mechanised infantry”. It takes much more than putting some soldiers in the back of a truck for them to qualify as being mechanized infantry. To cut a long story short, that requires armored personnel carriers (APC). The captions on the images of the headquarters do not identify any APCs. They do point to “Vehicles consistent with heavy transports” which look very like open topped trucks. There is a crucial difference here. An APC is tracked and armoured and so can carry troops across country and in safety right up to the point where they disembark. A truck is wheeled and isn’t armoured. It’s usually limited to roads and the troops inside are a vulnerable target.
 
I agree that the satellite images of the headquarters indicate slit trenches,  some other firing positions, tanks, helicopters and towed artillery (though it’s difficult to be certain). But I question the significance of these findings. The equipment and works highlighted are what one would expect to find at a divisional headquarters in somewhere like South Kordofan. To start ringing alarm bells I’d want to see evidence of a build-up of personnel or equipment - and that isn’t presented. Moreover, the existence of tanks, trucks, artillery and helicopters at a base doesn’t tell us too much about whether they could be used offensively. In Sudan, as with many areas of conflict, equipment may well be in such a poor state of repair that it can’t be moved or even fired. It would be much more convincing if several images of equipment over time had been presented. That way we’d know if, say, tanks, artillery or helicopters had newly arrived in the area, or at least if they had been moved we could assume that they are operable. But that isn’t presented or commented upon.
 
To sum up, the evidence presented in the report is underwhelming. The road works and runway lengthening are noteworthy. But I think that to raise an urgent alert much more evidence is needed of a build-up, or even the presence, of significant military forces that require the new infrastructure. 
 
Every source used by people to track military forces and movements of weapons can be indistinct, confusing and frustratingly unclear. They raise more questions then they answer. Satellite images are no different.  In years gone by they were used exclusively by intelligence agencies and formed part of the mythology of the Cold War. They now offer an important means by which the humanitarian and disarmament communities can augment our understanding of places like South Kordofan. But caution needs to be exercised when analyzing them.  We need to accept the limitations of what we can know without actually being there.
 
 
UPDATE 10 Feb 2012
 
I have received the following comment from Rex Byrnen
 
On the Mi-8/24 issue (with the warning that I'm not an IMINT guy)...

The three helicopters in question don't appear to be Mi-8s, because they all appear to have smaller rotors than the one helicopter that appears to be a Mi-8. This is consistent with the Mi-24, which does have a smaller 5-bladed rotor than the Mi-8.

They clearly aren't any of the other helicopters known to be in the Sudanese inventory (MBB Bo 155s, IAR 330s, AB 212s), none of which have a 5-bladed rotor.
 
I think that Rex is correct so I've scored out the text above.

Bollywood, missiles and stubble.

Posted 08 Feb 2012 by Kashfia Zaman printer icon permanent link
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​A remarkable piece of advertising portrays an arms company as the suitor in a Bollywood style video.  
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Israel and India share a longstanding, deep, but often low profile defence relationship. A couple of years back in an Aero India exhibition Israeli arms company Rafael presented a very intriguing video which promoted their camaraderie. Before going into the details of the video here is some brief background on the bond between India and the Israeli company.
 
RAFAEL Advanced Defense Systems Limited is a government owned defence company. It was founded as Israel’s National R&D military research facility and was part of the Ministry of Defence. In 2002 it was formally incorporated as a limited company owned by the government.
 
India and Israel share strategic commonalities in both having borders with potential rivals and in the on-going conflicts in  Kashmir for India and in Palestine  for Israel. Their bi-lateral relationship is relatively young, dating back to 1992 when India and Israel declared a full diplomatic relationship and opened  embassies in  each country. The alliance they share is of mutual benefit.  India is one of Israel’s  biggest defence export markets . In addition to the sale of military equipment India and Israel are working on a free trade pact emphasizing the bilateral exchange of IT, agriculture technology and biotechnology.
 
In an attempt to promote their bond, Rafael made a Bollywood style dance video as a marketing tool for the defence and strategic affairs online news magazine Stratpost. The remarkable video was shown at   Aero India 2009, a biennial air show and aviation exhibition held in Banglalore.
 

The video can be viewed here.   

 
The girl in the greenattire represents India and the guy in stubble, shades and a leather jacket represents the Rafael company.  It depicts a loving relationship where the guy reassures the girl of his commitment to her, how he is always going to protect her, and that they will always be together forever.  In this way it is a riveting mimic of Bollywood melodramatic sing songs, a few examples of which can be found here, here and here. 
 
 
The pair are surrounded by missiles (one of which is labelled as being a Spike, an anti-tank missile) decorated with flower garlands. Perhaps they are there to make the girl feel protected and secure? Behind them three other girls dance to the music.  It is common in Bollywood songs to have background dancers while the protagonists dance away at the centre. The video presents Indian cultural motifs - pictures of Hindu gods are hung up on the walls and the female participants wear bright costumes and jewellery.
 
The guy starts to sing and assures her that he is always going to protect her. This is presumably an allusion to Rafael, and Israel, promising to be a faithful and long term arms supplier to India. The mood of the music is very “Indo-Israeli”, it is a pleasantly balanced blend of Israeli and Indian music. The female singer’s voice was not at all like that of other Bollywood singers. It also represents a sort of balanced fusion between the two cultures.
 
What I did not like about the video was the choreography. I feel that they could have done a better job by presenting classical dancers in the background instead of people who are clearly  amateurs. It is striking that the girl, and her backing dancers, are dressed in a fusion Indian lehenga (westernized version of the traditional lehenga or formal attire for women), and the room is decked out in other Indian motifs. Meanwhile the guy’s clothes could be found in almost any city around the world. He certainly isn’t associated with obvious symbols of Israel (not even a star of david medallion). The cultural symbolism is very much in one direction. The lyrics are:
 
Guy
We have been together for so long
Trusting friends and partners
What more can I pledge
 To make our future strong
 
Girl
I need to feel safe and sheltered
 Security and protection
Commitment and perfection
Defense and dedication
 
Chorus
Together forever
I will hold you in my heart
Together forever
We will never be apart
 
I believe in you
You believe in me
 
Together forever
We will always be
Dinga Dinga Dinga Dinga Dee
 
Guy
I promise to defend you
Fulfill your expectations
Shield you and support you
Meet my obligations
 
Chorus
I believe in you
You believe in me
Together forever
We will always be
Dinga Dinga Dinga Dinga Dee
 
Girl
Friends and companions
Committed and strong
We will stand united
Protect our bond
 
It is clear from the lyrics that the guy, ‘Rafael’, is offering to secure the bond between them.  He says “you believe in me” in the song, which suggests to me that he needs a bit of reassurance from the girl, that he is hoping for her to say that she does. It is also interesting that the video portrays ‘India’ as being a passive girl who wants to be protected by her suitor, singing that she needs “to feel safe and sheltered”. This is of course in stark contrast to Israel and India’s respective economic and diplomatic importance. Rafael has high technology that India wants, but aside from that Rafael, and for that matter Israel, is unable to offer India strategic protection. The two countries have a relationship of mutual advantage, rather than one being the protector of the other.
 
The guy’s promises of faithfulness are also somewhat sullied by the knowledge that Israel received severecriticism from the USA after Israel exported unmanned drone aircraft to China, India’s strategic rival. The sale was by IAI, another Israeli company. But still, I can’t help think thinking that perhaps the guy in the video wouldn’t be quite so faithful if a better offer came along.
 
Some more reading on Israel and India and their strategic relationship can be found here, and here.

Arms exports to Egypt since January 2011: Czech ammunition likely used against demonstrators

Posted 24 Nov 2011 by Nicholas Marsh printer icon permanent link
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Clashes between security forces and pro-democracy demonstrators in Tahrir Square in Cairo during November 2011 have so far left 38 civilians dead. Ammunition found on Tahir square after the killing  was likely exported to Egypt by the Czech Republic in May or August 2011. Other countries have also exported millions of dollars or Euros worth of arms to Egypt since January 2011.
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Mike Lewis has an excellent blog post up on identification of ammunition used to repress demonstrators in Tahrir Square. He has used photographs of ammunition posted to various web sites to show the manufacturer, and so possible country of origin, of the ammunition.
 
This post is a quick follow-up to the great work done by Mike and his collaborators and I’ll briefly look into some possible transfers of the ammunition, and also highlight some other exports of arms to Egypt since January 2011.
 
Mike highlights a picture of a 9x19mm cartridge manufactured by Sellier & Bellot of the Czech Republic. He notes two things about the cartridge, first that it appears to be ‘live’ ammunition (as opposed to rubber or other ‘less than lethal’ projectiles). Second, that a marking on the head stamp indicates that it was manufactured in 2010.
 
That’s recent. Oftentimes ammunition found in the aftermath of an atrocity is decades old, and is so much more difficult to trace. The recent date of manufacture raises the possibility that the ammunition was exported in 2011- after the civil demonstrations in Egypt of January and February 2011 which led to the ousting of Mubarak’s government and involved 846 deaths.
 
A search of Eurostat’s Comext database on trade by EU member states shows that the Czech Republic did export small caliber ammunition to Egypt in May and August 2011. Moreover, no such exports are recorded in 2010.
 
The ammunition was exported over two periods. First, there was a small transfer worth  EUR 9560 in May 2011. Later, in August 2011 the Czech Republic reports a further export of EUR 23 091 worth of small caliber ammunition. It’s possible that there could have been further transfers later in the year –  at present the Eurostat database only provides data up to September 2011 (more will be added later).
 
The size of the transfer is interesting. It’s quite small and I wouldn’t expect it to have been a central procurement by the Egyptian army. If that were the case millions of Euros worth would have been ordered. In any case Egypt manufacturers its own ammunition. On the other hand, the EUR 23 091 transfer especially is too large to have been purchased by a private individual (for example for sport shooting).
 
My assumption, and it is very speculative, is that it was purchased by either for a relatively small specialist police, or military special forces, unit; or by a civilian dealer intent on selling it on (perhaps to several different clients).
 
The type of ammunition reported by the Czech Republic is also interesting. EU members can specify what type of small caliber ammunition they have traded – such as for pistols and revolvers, hunting rifles, sub-machineguns, or other military firearms (such as assault rifles or machineguns). In this case though the Czech Republic reported the small caliber ammunition as being ‘not elsewhere specified’– another way of defining the type as being ‘other’. We shouldn’t make too much of this tough as in my experience ‘not elsewhere specified’ is often used as a convenient catch all category.
 
So, concerning the Czech ammunition photographed in Tahrir square after this week’s killings, I think that the most likely route that it took was via authorized exports from the Czech Republic to the Egyptian Government in May or August 2011.
 
This though is a very preliminary assessment. The ammunition could have taken an indirect route to Egypt (having been exported to another country); or an indirect route to the security forces after it arrived (for example having been sold to a private dealer). The Eurostat data is based upon reports of goods moving through customs and just reports that ammunition moved from one country to another. It doesn’t tell us anything about the vendor, purchaser, end-user or any other party involved in the transaction. Moreover, I’d like more definitive confirmation that the round was definitely manufactured in 2010. 
 
Mike highlights two other pieces of used ammunition that I’ll also briefly mention here. They are Italian and US manufactured 12 gague shotgun cartridges. Italy didn’t report to Eurostat any exports of shotgun ammunition to Egypt in 2011. It did though report such a transfers in 2010 and in previous years. Similarly, the USA reported exports of shotgun cartridges to Egypt in 2007 (see below), but not afterward .
 
It’s likely then that the shotgun ammunition was imported by Egypt before the demonstrations in January and February 2011 that ousted the Mubarak regime and resulted in the installation of a military government. And again, there are other routes by which the ammunition could have reached Egypt.
 
The Czech government isn’t the only one to have exported arms and ammunition to Egypt since January 2011. Eurostat reports that European states reported exports of EUR 1 555 849 worth of arms between January and September 2011. These exports can be disaggregated as follows:
 
Austria: EUR 58 770 worth of ‘confidential trade’ (covered by arms and ammunition).
Cyprus: EUR 236 395 worth of shotguns and shotgun cartridges.
Czech Republic: EUR 113 575 worth of pistols and revolvers, parts and accessories of revolvers and pistols, and small caliber ammunition (see above).
Germany: EUR 139 384 worth of shotguns, shotgun cartridges and parts and accessories of pistols and revolvers.
France: EUR 781 079 worth of parts of arms, small caliber ammunition, large caliber ammunition and other diverse munitions.
The United Kingdom: EUR 0 worth of ‘confidential trade’ in arms and ammunition. It is likely that the value as been redacted.
Greece: EUR 7 553 worth of shotgun cartridges.
Italy: EUR 145 460 worth of shotguns and parts of shotgun ammunition.
Poland: EUR 53 168 worth of parts of military weapons.
Slovakia: EUR 456 worth of revolvers and pistols.
 
Exports from the EU are governed by the EU's Common Position. It includes reference to concerns about human rights, internal conflict and regional security. To recap, by March 2011 some 850 pro-democracy demonstrators had been killed and Egypt was under the control of a military regime. Civil war had broken out over the border in Libya, there were ongoing conflicts over the southern border in Sudan, and to the East  Egypt has been used as a conduit for trafficking arms into Gaza. Governments using the EU Common Position would surely had cause for concern about arms exported to Egypt.  Again, though, its difficult to make any broader assessment as the Eurostat data we have on these transfers is limited (see above).
 
During the same period (January to September 2011) the USA also reported exports of USD 13 536 090 worth of arms and ammunition, namely:  Parts of Guided Missiles; Cartridges; Centerfire Autoloading Rifles; Bombs, Grenades, and their Munitions; Machineguns; Self-Propelled Artillery; Artillery; Rocket Launchers; Military Rifles; Pump Action Shotguns; and Parts of Munitions. This data, like that from Eurostat, is based upon reports of goods moving through customs, so we don't have any more information about the context of the transfers (see above regarding Eurostat).
 
The US does not, of course, follow the EU Common Position. Nevertheless, it is, and should be, concerned about human rights violations committed by Egypt’s security forces, and about peace and stability in Egypt and the region.
 
It is of course likely that other countries have also exported arms to Egypt. We only have such up-to-date data on the EU, US and a few other countries. Over the next few years some others may well report transfers to Egypt in National Reports on the arms trade, or to the UN Register of Conventional Arms. Other countries do not report at all. 
 
To conclude, the available information suggests that the Czech Republic exported small caliber ammunition to Egypt in May and August 2011, and that some of that ammunition was used to fire on demonstrators in Tahir Square in November 2011. The Czech Republic is not alone in having exported arms to Egypt since January 2011. If the disturbances continue we may, but hopefully not, see other country’s weapons and ammunition being used to shoot civilian demonstrators.  
 
 
All the governments involved in exporting arms to Egypt since January 2011 should take this opportunity to clarify exactly what was transferred, and to whom.
 
 
Update 25 November 2011
 
I have a problem with the software that allowe me to review comments (and so exclude spam etc),  so I'll copy and past one left by Mike Lweis:
 
Thanks Nic! This is super-interesting - to my shame I didn't even know that the Comext database was so up-to-date (I'm still toiling away with Comtrade - how late 1990s...)

The possibility that there may have been Czech ammunition exports to Egypt in May and August is particularly interesting in light of statements reportedly made by the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs to Amnesty Internatonal Czech Republic on 3 October 2011: that the Czech Republic stopped issuing arms exports to Egypt on 9 Feb, and that as of 3 Oct they had issued no new ones.

Of course, this doesn't say anything directly about *existing* licenses - and Amnesty's report gestures at a *possible* loophole: they note (fn.120 at the link below) that the suspension of arms export licences in the Czech Republic can last 30 days plus an additional 30 days extension (before they have to be released or revoked); and that although a new amendment to Czech export law allows indefinite suspension until the situation in the destination country changes, this didn't come into force until September 2011...

http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/ACT30/117/2011/en/049fdeee-66fe-4b13-a90e-6d7773d6a546/act301172011en.pdf