Putin uses Victory Day spectacle to mask war fatigue and court partners

The end of the self-glorifying festivities leaves Putin facing the need to make a disagreeable decision on the ceasefire, without which the negotiations in Istanbul are certain to produce an instant fiasco. His game of playing on multiple disagreements between the United States, Ukraine, and the Europeans is cancelled by their newly forged unity centered on the demand for terminating the hostilities, and his demonstrated closeness with the PRC is set to strengthen this Western consensus. Ukraine will undoubtedly use the pause to regroup and resupply its forces. This is the least of Putin’s worries, however, shaped primarily by the fear of showing weakness and yielding to hostile pressure. The majority of Russians will rejoice with the prospect of turning a ceasefire into a longer armistice, but the question about what the war was really about is certain to be asked soon after the first collective sigh of relief.