Description of replication data for Petrova et al. 'The "conflict trap" reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways'

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acb163


File input_data.csv:

This file includes the data used for estimating the statistical models described in the paper. ID variables are 'year' and 'gwno' (Gleditsch and Ward country number). The dataset includes historical observations from 1970 to 2016 and projections for exogenous variables from 2017 to 2100 (in practice, some of the series are projections from 2010 onwards). 

Most series are included in five variants, one for each Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). For instance, 'pop1' is the country's population (in milions) for SSP1, 'pop2' the same for SSP2, etc. For the historical data, all five SSPs have similar values. For the projetions (from 2017 or from 2010 in some cases), values are diverging across SSPs.

The variables in input_data.csv are labeled as follows (see the paper for references). 'x' refers to an index number in the actual column names:

conflictx: Armed conflict
popx: Population in millions
educx: Education levels
gdpx: GDP per capita (original projections)

geo_fvx: Geographical cluster variables
km_fvx: Development cluster variables
rm_fvx: Random cluster variables
ph_fvx: Political history cluster variables

gwno_f_x: Country dummies
year5_c_f_x: Five-year period dummies



File results.csv:

This file includes the simulation results. ID variables are 'year' and 'gwno' (Gleditsch and Ward country number). The dataset includes historical observations from 1970 to 2016 and projections for both the exogenous and endogenous variables from 2017 to 2100. 


Most series are included in five variants, one for each Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). 

The variables in results.csv are labeled as follows (see the paper for references). 'x' refers to an index number in the actual column names:

ln_gdpx_mean: Natural logarithm of mean simulated value for GDP per capita. 
ln_gdpx_peace: Interaction term between ln_gdpx_mean and conflictx
sspx_gdppc_oecd: Original GDP per capita projection from Dellink et al.
sspx_sec_edu_prop: Proportion of population with secondary education 
sspx_pop_iiasa: Population, from IIASA
ln_sspx_gdppc_oecd: Natural logarithm of original GDP per capita projection
conflictx_mean: Mean simulated conflict (i.e., proportion of simulations in conflict for that country year)
difference_conf_noconf_x: Simulated difference in ln GDP per capita between conflict and no-conflict versions of model 
correctedx_oecd: Corrected Dellink et al. ln GDP per capita (original series plus simulated difference)