Pavel K. Baev will present his book, and it will also be commented by the foreign affairs editor of Aftenposten, Kjell Dragnes. The seminar will be chaired by PRIO's deputy director, Kristian Berg Harpviken.
The book examines the interplay between energy policy and security policy under Vladimir Putin, and his drive to re-establish Russia’s ‘greatness’.
Assessing the internal contradictions of this policy, the book argues that Russia’s desire to strengthen its role of ‘energy security’ provider is undermined by its inability to secure growth in production of oil and gas. Further, the pressing demand to channel more resources into the military-industrial complex clashes with the growing need to invest in the energy complex, and the priority granted to strategic forces deprives the conventional forces of strike power and strategic mobility.
In conclusion, the author anticipates how these contradictions could be resolved, and suggests three short scenarios for Russia’s continuing transition in the next decade.