The course gives an introduction to methods for the analysis of duration data

(often called survival analysis or event history modeling). The course is targeted

at doctoral students and advanced master students in political science

and sociology.

The course will consist of lectures and exercises. The core textbook for the

lectures is Box-Steffensmeier & Jones (2004). The software package Stata will

be used for the exercises (documented in Cleves et al. 2004).

A set of replication data sets will be made available online later. Consult

this document later for more information.


Core topics

Areas of application of survival analysis methodology

Data setup, left and right censoring, ties

Definition of survivor and hazard functions

Kaplan-Meier estimation of survivor and hazard functions

Models: the proportional hazard model

Briefly on Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Interpretation of parameters in the linear component of the model

Models for the baseline hazard: Exponential, Weibull, Log-logistic, Lognormal, Cox

Models: Accelerated Failure Time Model

Models for multiple events

Model Selection, Diagnostics

Relationship to panel/time series-logit: Discrete time survival analysis

Relationship to OLS with duration as dependent variable



Note: The reading list is still preliminary. I may assign a couple more articles

with applications. The two main books will not be changed.

Beck, Nathaniel; Jonathan N. Katz & Richard Tucker, 1998. ‘Taking Time

Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable’,

American Journal of Political Science 42(4): 1260—1288.

Bienen, Henry, & Nicholas van de Walle, 1992. ‘A Proportional Hazard

Model of Leadership Duration’, Journal of Politics 54 (August): 685—171.

Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. & Bradford S. Jones, 2004. Event History Modeling.

A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

(212 pp.)

Cleves, Mario; William W. Gould, & Roberto Gutierrez, 2004. An Introduction

to Survival Analysis Using Stata, Revised Edition. Stata Press. (304


Collier, Paul; Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom, 2004. ‘On the Duration of

Civil War’, Journal of Peace Research 41(3):253—274.

Fearon, James D., 2004. ‘Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer

Than Others?’, Journal of Peace Research 41(3): 275—302.

Gasiorowski, Mark J., 1995. ‘Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change:

An Event History Analysis’, American Political Science Review 89(4): 882—897.

Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre, Mark Jones & Håvard Strand, 2003a. ‘Institutional

Inconsistency and Polity Duration’, typescript, PRIO. URL: http://www.

Ireland, Michael J.& Scott Sigmund Gartner, 2001. ‘Time to Fight: Government

Type and Conflict Initiation in Parliamentary Systems’ Journal of Conflict

Resolution, 45(5): 547-568.

King, Gary., 1989. Unifying Political Methodology. The Likelihood Theory

of Statistical Inference, ch., 4 (pp. 59—94). Michigan, MI: Michigan University


Pevehouse, Jon, 2002. ‘With a Little Help from My Friends? Regional Organizations

and the Consolidation of Democracy’, American Journal of Political

Science, 46(3): 611—626.

Raknerud, Arvid & Håvard Hegre, 1997. ‘The Hazard of War: Reassessing

the Evidence for the Democratic Peace’, Journal of Peace Research 34(4): 385-404.