Will democracy bring peace to Myanmar?

The objective of this article is to assess the current political developments in Myanmar and the impact of the democratic transition on the country’s persistent ethnic conflicts. It analyses the dynamics in the triangular relations between the ruling elite, the democratic opposition and the ethnic groups – the three necessary parties in any peace process. It also examines some of the internal lines of conflict within each of these parties and delineates four scenarios related to various possible outcomes of the elections in 2015. The argument of the article is that democratization does not in itself provide a viable solution to the war-torn country. Without a political process that involves all ethnic groups, aiming to target core problems in the Constitution and to secure genuine political representation and self-determination for Myanmar’s minority populations, there is little hope for lasting peace.