The upheavals in North Africa and the Middle East in early 2011 caught most analysts and decision makers by surprise. In order to better prepare researchers and policy makers for future conflicts, this COSTAction will build a new network called the “European Network of Conflict Research” (ENCoRe). Bringing together scholars in at least 10 COST countries, the network is supported by innovative tools for data integration and analysis. The aim of the Action is to coordinate and accelerate the construction and maintenance of conflict datasets with the help of an integrated online portal that allows researchers and policy makers to analyse and predict the outbreak and course of conflict processes around the world. Focusing on civil war and related types of political violence such as violent protest, riots, state repression and terrorism, our goal is to overcome institutional fragmentation currently hindering progress in European conflict research and to complement country-based analyses of countries with integrated data that enable scholars to study a wide range of risk factors. To achieve these objectives, the Action will launch a series of activities organized around the database system, as well as workshops with scientists and policy makers and training sessions for younger researchers.

Friday 21 Sept. First day of ENCoRe Meeting
10:00 Introduction to ENCoRe (Cederman)
10:30 Survey of data projects I
10:30 Introduction to GROWup (Girardin)
11:00 Extending EPR with data on cleavages (Bormann)
11:30 Introducing a new dataset on refugees (Rüegger & Bohnet)

12:00 Lunch

13:00 Survey of data projects II
13:00 News from UCDP (Melander & Allansson)
13:30 News from PRIO-Grid (Tollefsen)
14:00 Introducing a new dataset on pro-government militias (Carey)  and the presentation

14:30 Coffee

15:00 Management Committee Meeting (Cederman chair) (Minutes from 29/3/12)

17:00 CSCW Film seminar: Modern Civil War perspectives on the US Civil War (Henry Dunant Hall, Red Cross Conference facilities). Screening of episode one of the documentary “The Civil War” by Ken Burns.
18:15 Debate and questions with CSCW Director Scott Gates and former Governor of South Carolina, David Beasley.

18:45 Mingling and informal dinner

Saturday 22 Sept. Second day of ENCoRe Meeting
09:00 Elisabeth Wood: Talk on sexual violence

10:15 Coffee

10:45 Working Group 1 (Fjelde) and Agenda for the session
12:30 Lunch

13:30 Working Group 2 (Weidmann)

14:45 Coffee

15:15 Working Group 3 (Gleditsch)
Theme: Varieties of forecasting in conflict research 

  • Govinda Clayton (University of Kent) & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (University of Essex & CSCW, PRIO) “Helping Hands? Predicting the Initiation and Outcome of Civil War Mediation
  • Håvard Hegre (University of Oslo), Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (University of Oslo), Henrik Urdal (CSCW, PRIO) & Håvard Strand (CSCW, PRIO). “Predicting Armed Conflict, 2011—2050”
  • Steve Pickering (University of Essex), Ismene Gizelis (University of Essex) & Henrik Urdal (CSCW PRIO) “Town and Country: Variation in Civil War Conflict Patterns” 
  • General discussion of papers as well as varieties and best practices in forecasting
  • Review of future activities

16:30 Wrapping up (Cederman)

17:00 End of meeting

19:00 Dinner for participants who remain in Oslo until Sunday