​In the PRIO Cyprus Centre (PCC) Policy Brief 'Turning the Tide in Libya: Rival Administrations in a New Round of Conflict' – co-published with the PRIO Middle East Centre – Zenonas Tziarras and Ioannis Sotirios Ioannou analyze the geopolitical dynamics in Libya following Turkey's military intervention in December 2019. They argue that Libya has turned into a battleground for a peculiar version of a proxy war between Turkey on behalf of the Government of National Accord (GNA) and UAE, Egypt, Russia, and France on behalf of the Libyan National Army (LNA).

Zenonas Tziarras and Ioannis Sotirios Ioannou explain how Turkey's intervention in favor of the GNA has been crucial in preventing the fall of Tripoli, turning the tide against the Libyan National Army (LNA). However, Turkey's involvement has also enhanced geopolitical antagonisms between Ankara and external supporters of the LNA, such as Russia and Egypt, and ushered Libya into a new conflict between the GNA and the LNA. A solution to the conflict seems far off with divergences emerging over the peace process framework, with Turkey rejecting Egypt's ceasefire proposal and Washington expressing its support for the UN-led peace talks, indirectly rejecting the Cairo framework.

Download the Policy Brief here.