Shifts in regional impacts on the Syrian conflict zone determined Russia’s flexible stance in the debates in the UN Security Council on the issue of humanitarian aid. The compromise that has left one cross-border channel open was achieved through a bilateral US-Russia deal, but Ireland and Norway performed the work on preparing the resolution. Post-war reconstruction in Syria is progressing slowly, and Russia is concerned about the stability of the al-Assad regime. Most external stake-holders are content with the current situation, but economic dislocation and insufficiency of international aid generate discontent and amplify new sources of conflict. By mid-2022, follow-up debates in the UN Security Council may reflect a new escalation of the Syrian war.
In a MidEast Policy Brief, Research Professor Pavel Baev writes about the future of UN humanitarian aid to Syria, following the UN Security Council adoption of Resolution 2585 on 9 July 2021. Even though the resolution might appear to be a recycle of the compromise reached at the Security Council in 2020, it is different in many important aspects and will be tested again in 2022, argues Baev.
