A deadlock in the military operations is usually interpreted by external stakeholders as an opportunity to offer mediation toward peace talks, but it is clearly not the case in the present phase of the Russia-Ukraine war. China may have better information about Russian economy than the Kremlin, and so President Xi Jinping prefers to wait with re-launching his peace plan. Türkiye has gained a perfect position to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv, but Putin’s ambitions and delusions are no secret for Ankara, and those are not conducive to forging a compromise. It will take a turn of tide in the course of war to create an opportunity for a peace initiative, and Ukraine has good reasons to expect such change of fortunes in its favor in the coming months.
Baev, Pavel K. (2023) Stalemate amplifies political resonance of the Ukraine War, Panorama UIK (1–2). 29 December.