Five shifts in the balance of war in Ukraine's favor

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Baev, Pavel K. (2024) Five shifts in the balance of war in Ukraine's favor, Panorama UIK (1–2). 14 February.

UIK Panorama Opinion

These big and small shifts in the balance of the long war don’t signify a forthcoming victory for Ukraine, but they definitely amount to a disappearance of Russia’s temporary advantage, which hasn’t been translated into any significant gains on the battlefields, hard as Russian troops have tried to push toward Avdiivka or Kreminna. President Putin still radiates confidence that time is on his side, but the tide of war doesn’t follow his wishes – and the combination of Ukrainian resilience and Western support gains new strength. The war of conquest cannot be won on defensive, and sooner or later one of Russian not-so-big battalions will decide that enough is enough, bringing the war to an end with this simple message.

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