Moscow ponders reconfigured Middle East, finding few openings

Russia can hardly find any opportunity for regaining even a bit of influence amid the uncertainty of Washington’s intention to resume talks with Iran from the newly asserted position of strength. Putin’s persistent offer of mediation services is irrelevant for Tehran, irritated by Russian duplicity, senseless for Trump, who would trust his own envoys, and unacceptable for Israel, which is likely irked by Russia’s loud declarations of solidarity with Iran. Over the past decade, Russia’s diplomatic maneuvering in the Middle East has been underpinned by its readiness to project military power, as exemplified by the Syrian intervention, and its willingness to follow Saudi Arabia’s lead in the OPEC+ format (see EDM, April 2, 2018). Presently, it has become increasingly apparent to regional powers and external stakeholders that Moscow lacks the military capacity to project power and has no intention of adhering to the rules in the oil market. Putin is eager to express respect and even admiration for Trump, but this flattery cannot compensate for the damage done by his cruel execution of the unwinnable war.