Russian summer of doubt and foreboding drags on

The long war of attrition may deliver more surprises, and Putin’s confidence in controlling the strategic initiative could be shattered yet again. He relies more on the resignation and adaptability of the Russian polity than on a “patriotic” mobilization, but the gradual spread of tiredness with the war may suddenly turn into an explosion of discontent—and he knows from experience that the only certainty about such a swing of public mood is unpredictability. Fifty days is an entirely artificial timeframe for the war, which has already lasted 1,244 days, and one week out of seven, as earmarked by Trump, has already passed in the same mode. No reliable measure of the reserves of Russia’s endurance exists, but its progressing degradation in the course of the war of aggression makes this perseverance self-defeating.