The Waning of War is Real: A Response to Gohdes and Price

Journal article

Lacina, Bethany Ann & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2013) The Waning of War is Real: A Response to Gohdes and Price, Journal of Conflict Resolution 57 (6): 1109–1127.

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A number of recent studies argue that there is decline in armed conflict within and between nations. Gohdes and Price run against the grain in arguing that there is no evidence for a decrease in battle deaths in armed conflicts after World War II and that the trend reported in our earlier articles is spurious. However, they do not plausibly justify this thesis. We reexamine the argument for a decline, exploring nonlinearities in the data and potential biases due to measurement error. We find that very strong assumptions must hold in order for measurement errors to explain the trend in battle deaths.

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