The day after III: The Cyprus peace dividend for Turkey and Greece

PRIO Paper

Öguz, Özlem; Praxoula Antoniadou Kyriacou & Fiona Mullen (2010) The day after III: The Cyprus peace dividend for Turkey and Greece. PRIO Cyprus Centre Paper. Nicosia: PRIO Cyprus Centre.

This study is the third in the series of Day After reports prepared by the all-female team that has come to be known as The Three Ladies. In our first report, we analyzed the commercial opportunities that could arise from the reunification of Cyprus and quantified the peace dividend for the key sectors that would benefit.

In our Day After II report, having analyzed the investment and reconstruction needs in the first few years, we went one step further by extending our analysis to the whole economy. We found that a solution would generate EUR 12,000 per year per family on the island, create 33,000 new jobs and raise the real GDP growth rate by 3 percentage points per year on average for at least the first five years.

In this Day After III report, we look beyond Cyprus to the region, analyzing the peace dividend that awaits Turkey after a solution that unites the island, while we also preview the benefits for Greece.

We make a detailed examination of how specific sectors of Turkey’s economy would benefit in terms of additional growth resulting from the unification of Cyprus. We also estimate the savings that can be made in terms of expenditure, both current and future, once the Cyprus problem is peacefully resolved. A similar approach is adopted with reference to Greece, though with a lesser degree of detail. As always, our estimates are based on the analysis of hard statistical data.

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