Hit 'em Where It Hurts: Measuring and Testing the Impact of Economic Nonviolent Strategies on Democratization

Led by Petter Kristiansen Arnesen
Aug 2018 -

​Master's project in Comparative Politics at the University of Bergen.
Supervisor at PRIO: Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

​Previous research on successful nonviolent strategies have focused on the importance of provoking security force defection, but little else is known about which strategies work. I identify a knowledge gap in the literature and argue that strategies designed to harm a country's economy are likely to have an effect on the likelihood of democratization. 

Using a Bayesian hierarchical item response model with the NAVCO 3.0 dataset, I measure 'economic strategies' in 26 conutries from 1991 to 2012, and test whether economic strategies explain some of the variation.