Håvard Mokleiv Nygård left PRIO in 2021. The information on this page is kept for historical reasons.
My present research is centred on two themes:
Forecasting: Forecasting long-term incidence of civil armed conflict, forecasting regime type, and joint forecasts for conflict and regime type. Developing models (Bayesian and frequentist) for forecasting conflict and regime type.
Political Economy of Authoritarianism: Regime duration, repression and regime survival, voting and regime survival, autocratic coalition dynamics, especially the relationship between the dictator and the security apparatus.
By Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudmund Horn Hermansen & Carl Henrik Knutsen in Political Analysis
By Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Abbey Steele, Helga Malmin Binningsbø, Michael Weintraub, Christopher Fariss & Pablo Ruiz Hiebra
Journal Article in Political Analysis
Report - Other
Popular Article in Aftenposten
Journal Article in International Studies Quarterly
Report - External Series
Journal Article in Jeju Forum Journal
Report - Other
Siri Aas Rustad will be the Research Director of the research department Conditions of Violence and Peace from 10 February.
Siri Aas Rustad is a Research Professor at PRIO, and has previously served as substitute Research Director for 5 months in 2019. She heads several ongoing projects, including Green Curses, Ceasefires and Conflict Trends. She has been at PRIO in different capacities since 2005.
Siri will be succeeding Håvard Mokleiv Nygård.
Congratulations to Siri!
Håvard Mokleiv Nygård will be the new Director of Knowledge and Evaluations at Norad, the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation. He will start his new job in February, and thus leave his current position as Research Director for the department Conditions of Violence and Peace.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has awarded the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize to the World Food Programme. PRIO Director Henrik Urdal says the prize is extremely welcome, "also speaking to one of the great challenges of our time: the increasing number of refugees worldwide."
Following external academic evaluations, the PRIO Board has awarded Research Professor competence to Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Siri Aas Rustad and Tore Wig. Congratulations!
The American-Canadian psychologist Steven Pinker started a debate when his book The Better Angels of Our Nature came out in 2011. There, he characterized the time since 1945-1950 as "The Long Peace". He argued that the world had become more peaceful since WWII.
But PRIO's Håvard Mokleiv Nygård and UiO statistician Nils Lid Hjort weren't completely convinced. They gathered a multidisciplinary team to investigate, and the results of their data analysis showed the Long Peace really began after the Vietnam War.
PRIO has long been at the forefront of research on protest movements.
As of 2020 PRIO houses three major projects that simultaneously are investigating mass mobilizations and protests. As a result, we will have a large team of leading experts in the field. This is something that no other research institution can boast of, either nationally or internationally.
Read more about this in Tora Sagård's summing up of these projects and the links between them.
While Håvard Nygård is on paternity leave, Siri Aas Rustad will be the Research Director of Conditions of Violence and Peace Department, starting 4 March 2019.
Yesterday, the NEPS Medal for the best publication in peace science, was awarded in Verona to Carl Henrik Knutsen, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård and Tore Wig for their aricle in World Politics: 'Autocratic Elections: Stabilizing Tool or Force for Change?'.
The Research Council of Norway announced this morning that PRIO will receive TOPPFORSK funding for the project: "Securing the victory? Understanding dynamics of short-run and long-term success in popular uprisings and democratization".
The announcement of FRIPRO funds from the Research Council of Norway has been published, and PRIO is very happy to see two important projects receiving funding:
More information about these projects will soon be available at the PRIO website. Announcement available on the RCN web pages.