Håvard Mokleiv Nygård left PRIO in 2021. The information on this page is kept for historical reasons.
Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Research Professor
Additional positions:
Managing Editor, IASR
Research Interests
My present research is centred on two themes:
Forecasting: Forecasting long-term incidence of civil armed conflict, forecasting regime type, and joint forecasts for conflict and regime type. Developing models (Bayesian and frequentist) for forecasting conflict and regime type.
Political Economy of Authoritarianism: Regime duration, repression and regime survival, voting and regime survival, autocratic coalition dynamics, especially the relationship between the dictator and the security apparatus.
Working experience:
- Research Director, Conditions of Violence and Peace, PRIO 2017 – 2021
- Associate Editor, International Area Studies Review
- Senior Researcher, PRIO, 2014 – 2021
- Norwegian Ministry of Defence Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, PRIO, 2014 – 2016
- Associate Researcher, PRIO, 2010 – 2014
- Research Assistant, CSCW, PRIO 2008 – 2010
- Research Assistant for Dr. Tom Segev 2007 – 2008
- Research Intern, African Council for Sustainable Health Development, Ibadan Nigeria, 2003
Education:
- PhD in Political Science, University of Oslo (January 2014)
- M. Phil, Political Science, University of Oslo (June 2009)
- BA, Comparative Politics, University of Bergen, (June 2004)
- World Bank, on the development consequences of conflict (2010—2011)
- Human Security Report Project, on education and conflict (2011)
- NATO-Allied Command Transformation, on strategic foresight (2014—2015)
- EU Commission, Joint Research Center, on developing a global conflict risk model (2014—)
- United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, on forecasting conflict and political instability (2014--)
CVLatest publications
All publications
Characterizing and Assessing Temporal Heterogeneity: Introducing a Change Point Framework, with Applications on the Study of Democratization
Journal Article in Political Analysis
Lights and Shadows of the Peace Agreement Implementation in Colombia: Attitudes and Perceptions in the PDET Territories
Report - Other
Kan vi forutse krig? Studier gir grunn til optimisme
Popular Article in Aftenposten
Defection during dissent and regime transitions
Conference Paper
Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality
Journal Article in International Studies Quarterly
SDG 16 Data Initiative: 2020 Global Report
Report - External Series
Timing Matters: The Impact of Regularity of Election Cycles on Autocratic Stability
Conference Paper
The Effect of COVID-19 on Peace Agreement Implementation
PRIO Paper
What will the world look like after the pandemic?
Journal Article in Jeju Forum Journal
The Dynamics of Civil Wars: A Bayesian hidden Markov model applied to the pattern of conflict and the role of ceasefires
Conference Paper
Latest news
All news
Siri Aas Rustad New Research Director
Siri Aas Rustad will be the Research Director of the research department Conditions of Violence and Peace from 10 February.
Siri Aas Rustad is a Research Professor at PRIO, and has previously served as substitute Research Director for 5 months in 2019. She heads several ongoing projects, including Green Curses, Ceasefires and Conflict Trends. She has been at PRIO in different capacities since 2005.
Siri will be succeeding Håvard Mokleiv Nygård.
Congratulations to Siri!
Håvard Mokleiv Nygård New Director of Knowledge and Evaluations at Norad
Håvard Mokleiv Nygård will be the new Director of Knowledge and Evaluations at Norad, the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation. He will start his new job in February, and thus leave his current position as Research Director for the department Conditions of Violence and Peace.
Director Henrik Urdal Celebrates World Food Programme Nobel Win
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has awarded the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize to the World Food Programme. PRIO Director Henrik Urdal says the prize is extremely welcome, "also speaking to one of the great challenges of our time: the increasing number of refugees worldwide."
Three New Research Professors at PRIO
Following external academic evaluations, the PRIO Board has awarded Research Professor competence to Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Siri Aas Rustad and Tore Wig. Congratulations!
Håvard Nygård to Co-Lead CAS Project “Stability and Change”
The American-Canadian psychologist Steven Pinker started a debate when his book The Better Angels of Our Nature came out in 2011. There, he characterized the time since 1945-1950 as "The Long Peace". He argued that the world had become more peaceful since WWII.
But PRIO's Håvard Mokleiv Nygård and UiO statistician Nils Lid Hjort weren't completely convinced. They gathered a multidisciplinary team to investigate, and the results of their data analysis showed the Long Peace really began after the Vietnam War.
PRIO Has the Leading Experts on Protests
PRIO has long been at the forefront of research on protest movements.
As of 2020 PRIO houses three major projects that simultaneously are investigating mass mobilizations and protests. As a result, we will have a large team of leading experts in the field. This is something that no other research institution can boast of, either nationally or internationally.
Read more about this in Tora Sagård's summing up of these projects and the links between them.
Siri Aas Rustad will Head the Conditions of Violence and Peace Department
While Håvard Nygård is on paternity leave, Siri Aas Rustad will be the Research Director of Conditions of Violence and Peace Department, starting 4 March 2019.
Siri Aas Rustad is a Senior Researcher at PRIO. She is the project leader of two ongoing projects; Ceasefires and Conflict Trends. She has been at PRIO in different capacities since 2005.
NEPS Medal to PRIO Researchers
Yesterday, the NEPS Medal for the best publication in peace science, was awarded in Verona to Carl Henrik Knutsen, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård and Tore Wig for their aricle in World Politics: 'Autocratic Elections: Stabilizing Tool or Force for Change?'.
Congratulations!
PRIO Awarded Prestigious TOPPFORSK Grant
The Research Council of Norway announced this morning that PRIO will receive TOPPFORSK funding for the project: "Securing the victory? Understanding dynamics of short-run and long-term success in popular uprisings and democratization".
RCN FRIPRO Funding for Two PRIO Projects
The announcement of FRIPRO funds from the Research Council of Norway has been published, and PRIO is very happy to see two important projects receiving funding:
- ‘Micro-Foundations of Conflict Escalation’ (MiCE), Young Researcher Talent project for Håvard Nygård
- 'Street-level Autocrats -- Individual Decisions with Collective Consequences’, a researcher project led by Kristin Bakke
More information about these projects will soon be available at the PRIO website. Announcement available on the RCN web pages.
Latest events
All events
Launch of the UNDP/PRIO report on attitudes and perceptions towards the peace process in Colombia
Global Peace and COVID-19
Fulfilling the SDGs for Hidden and Vulnerable Populations
Chernobyl - Hva skjedde egentlig?
Why War? What Stands Between Us and Peace?
Colombia’s Transition to Peace: A Never-Ending Struggle?
Social Media and Protest
Forgotten Conflicts - Hidden Trends
Implementing Peace Accords — Challenges, Opportunities, and Lessons from Colombia
Conflict Trends Course Opens for Policymakers and Practitioners
Latest blog posts
Can We Predict Civil War?
Improved Data to Assist in the Prevention and Management of Conflicts
Fewer Lives Being Lost in Conflicts
Information Technology Can Help Build Peace. This Is How.
Being Policy Relevant in Peace Research means Forecasting
Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014
Attacks on Humanitarian Aid Workers: Five New Findings
War is Development in Reverse
Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict
