Transnational Ethnic Dimensions of Third-Party Interventions in Civil Wars

Conference Paper

Nome, Martin Austvoll 2006 Transnational Ethnic Dimensions of Third-Party Interventions in Civil Wars, presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, , 31 Aug–3 September.

Existing quantitative studies of transnational ethnic affinities and interstate conflict could benefit from greater systemacy when defining different forms of ethnic ties. This paper contributes towards this by presenting a typology of transnational ethnic affinities, defined by a dichotomous conception of whether ethnic groups have access to governmental power in their respective countries. Using the typology as a starting point, I derive hypotheses on the likelihood of third-party support for either government or rebels in civil wars. Empirical tests suggest that the typology of transnational ethnic affinities is a strong predictor of foreign support for civil war parties.