Infiltration as Insurance

PRIO Policy Brief

Nalepa, Monika (2007) Infiltration as Insurance, PRIO Policy Brief, 7. Oslo: PRIO.


Transitional processes tend to pose a difficult strategic problem. In transitions from authoritarianism or communism, the outgoing regime needs assurance that the terms of the agreement will be kept once it has stepped down from power. Provision of this assurance, which may be called the credible commitment problem, was needed for Pinochet to step down in Chile, and also for the former communists in Eastern Central Europe (ECE) to open the way for democracy. Nalepa discusses this problem in the context of transitions from armed conflict, and compares the cases of the ECE with the current peace process in Colombia.