Military Defection

PRIO Policy Brief

Dahl, Marianne (2016) Military Defection, PRIO Policy Brief, 18. Oslo: PRIO.

​​​​Why do members of the security forces sometimes fight tenaciously for the incumbent while other times defect? When large parts of the security forces defect and side with th​​​​e protesters, the campaign is much more likely to be successful. This policy brief shows that security force defection is more likely to take place in regimes where the incumbent applied a broad set of coup-proofing strategies as a means of protection from the security forces. This provides insights into the puzzling observation that regimes that appear as extremely stable can rapidly collapse in the face of non-violent uprisings.​