The war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending soon. Ukraine is suffering between 600 and 1,000 casualties a day. A fifth of Ukraine is now controlled by Russia and its proxies.
Wars generate well-known “rally-around-the-flag” effects in public opinion – though the nature and sincerity of this is disputed. This leads us to expect that Ukrainian public attitudes towards any perceived compromises – especially territorial concessions – would be hardening.
The latest survey research in Ukraine largely confirms this. But our work adds crucial detail and nuance: those most affected by the war through displacement, and thus most concerned about their immediate security and welfare, are most likely to support an immediate ceasefire. Regional and gender differences are also pronounced.
