Dismissal, Dissuasion and Deterrence: Optimizing Responses to Putin's Brinksmanship

Deterrence is a multi-dimensional “mind game”, and it can be augmented by a seemingly incompatible activity – the peace diplomacy. The carefully prepared conference in Switzerland (which may supply the theme for my next Opinion article) should aim at more substantial outcome than just elaborations on President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “peace formula”. The success is by no means guaranteed, and China’s participation, even as an observer, is not certain, but substantial progress toward ending the devastating and potentially catastrophic war with a just peace can be achieved. One country that is perfectly positioned for contributing to this progress and persuading Russia that the non-invitation to Switzerland doesn’t signify rejection of its security concerns is Turkey. President Putin is due to make the long-promised visit to Ankara, and the high-level discussion provides an opportunity to grant Russia an acceptable way out of the current deadlock – and to ensure that nuclear risks remain manageable.