Putin holds firm to war course, conjuring mirage of victory

Putin’s diplomatic success in sabotaging the peace deal and placating Trump’s irritation may mark a serious setback in extricating Russia from the trap of the unsustainable war of attrition. His vision of victory is focused on a vague plan for a summer offensive, which amounts in essence to yet another strategic gamble, yielding at best some more territorial gains but is certain to exacerbate the distortions in Russia’s economy and the degradation of its society. His bet on deepening trans-Atlantic disagreements may appear smart and sure, but is, in fact, counterproductive, generating a consolidation of political will in Europe that is necessary for stopping the immediate push and deterring future aggressiveness. The limits of Russia’s resilience are tested again and again, and the price for overcoming each new one increases as its financial resources deplete and human capital deteriorates.