Putin tries to dodge pressure for ceasefire, but is stuck in tight corner

Putin wants to believe that his war of attrition is winnable and that victory is merely months, not years, away as the Ukrainian will to fight is depleted and the unity of the Western coalition is eroding. His generals are eager to present every “liberated” Ukrainian village as a step to victory, while camouflaging Russia’s casualties and ignoring the sky-high costs of recruiting the reinforcements. Similarly, his ministers keep reporting about the irreducible strength of the Russian economy and downplaying the indicators of a looming recession. This illusionary position of strength leaves Putin ill-prepared for the desired talks with Trump. The Kremlin could have aimed at a few more concessions in addition to those already harvested, but its wish list goes far beyond the boundaries of rational choice. A compromise peace deal would require Putin to transition from a war leader to a manager of a complex domestic crisis, and he is not prepared for such a downsizing.