Russian retribution for daring Ukrainian strike is postponed, perhaps indefinitely

Leaving the spectacular Ukrainian special operation unpunished is very much against Putin’s spiteful nature. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s forthcoming meeting with Trump at the margins of the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada, does not alleviate his anger. Putin cannot pretend that the sequence of missile strikes on Kyiv and bombings of Kharkiv and Sumy constitutes a sufficient retaliation, but is compelled to postpone whatever forceful action his generals can suggest until after the NATO summit, where Zelenskyy is again going to make his case. In other circumstances, serving revenge as a cold dish may be Putin’s tactic of choice, but Ukraine is now able to build on the attention from the daring attack—and perhaps to execute new surprises. Moscow’s best bet in erasing this setback is to increase the intensity of ground attacks, but the sustainability of this spare-no-troops strategy is far from certain. Sabotaging the peace talks is seen in the Kremlin as a diplomatic success, which may come with a much heavier strategic price tag than it has budgeted for.