From Isolation to Imitation: The “Dubaization” of North Cyprus and the New Demography of a De Facto State

This report provides a critical analysis of the political and demographic transformations underway in Northern Cyprus, where a model of Dubaization—marked by unregulated construction, commercialized higher education, and casino-led tourism—is reshaping the region’s socio-economic and institutional landscape. Far from a neutral trajectory of growth, this mode of development is embedded in a broader system of rentier capitalism, external dependency, and de facto governance. At its core, this transformation is demographic. Through large-scale real estate ventures, the proliferation of private universities catering primarily to foreign students, and the expansion of tourism anchored in the casino industry, Northern Cyprus is undergoing a profound reordering of population. The resulting hierarchy privileges short-term capital flows and transient populations while eroding the status, security, and cultural continuity of established communities. The report argues that this constitutes a form of demographic engineering, enabled by legal ambiguities and institutional fragmentation. Rather than viewing uncontrolled development as a symptom of weak governance, the study frames it as a strategic instrument of statecraft in an unrecognized polity. It raises urgent questions about the sustainability, legitimacy, and long-term social costs of a growth model that commodifies space, fragments citizenship, and undermines democratic planning.