Distributed deterrence: Europe’s new security logic and action plan

Policy brief

Baev, Pavel K.; Nicholas Marsh & Bruno Oliveira Martins (2025) Distributed deterrence: Europe’s new security logic and action plan, PRIO Policy Brief, 4. Oslo: PRIO.

Europe is struggling to deliver on the commitment to support Ukraine against Russian aggression and to ensure its own security given reduced US engagement. The strategy of deterrence has undergone impromptu changes and needs further revisions informed by rethinking of the scope and variety of new threats emanating primarily from autocratic and militarized Russia. The emerging new deterrence system is distributed among European institutions, national governments and multiple other actors, particularly in the defence industries. This new quality of security organization can be defined as ‘distributed deterrence’, which has organic problems with coordination, but also advantages in resilience, flexibility and innovation. A key element ensuring effectiveness of distributed deterrence is engagement of Ukraine.

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