Moscow downplays drone incursion in Poland

The Russian economy is the decisive strength or weakness in a long war of attrition, but the translation of economic degradation into military defeat is a slow process. Putin dismisses the threat of new sanctions, expecting that the strategic initiative on the Donbas battlefields will grant Russia a decisive edge before economic downturn necessitates a compromise peace deal. The combination of expanded Western economic support to Ukraine, increased investment in European deterrence capabilities, and sanctions pressure on Russia is the only way to alter Putin’s ambitious calculations. Each Russian provocation, such as the drone attack on Poland, may give Moscow’s high command a moment of instant gratification in observing its adversaries’ supposed lack of preparedness.