Talks on peace deal for war against Ukraine can still rebound

Putin cannot completely depart to the parallel reality of military victories, economic stability, and mass adulation, and so proceeds with elite reshuffles and repression of discontent. His risk calculus related to accepting a ceasefire deal was shaped by the fear of showing weakness, which would be detrimental to the long-cultivated image of a strong leader. The recent demonstrations of strength may alleviate this fear and grant him some time-limited space for accepting compromises and freezing the hostilities. This flexibility could be instantly popular with most elites and the majority of Russians, but to prevent questions about the costs and purposes of the war from eroding this popularity, he needs to deliver the economic benefits of his concessions. The lifting of sanctions is likely to be Moscow’s key demand in a potential new round of talks, and the partners in the Western coalition will have to weigh the difficult choice of rewarding Putin’s aggression.