The surge in nuclear posturing does real damage

Trump may – amidst the domestic headaches caused by the government shutdown – leave Putin’s latest escalatory signal unanswered, and the intensity of nuclear posturing may gradually subside. Neither Burevestnik nor Poseidon (if indeed tested) is ready for deployment in the coming months, and the plans for resuming nuclear testing can be shelved. The surge of brinksmanship has, nevertheless, inflicted lasting damage to global security, particularly by eroding the reliability of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1996). The credibility of the nuclear non-proliferation regime is also weakened because the obligation of the majority of states not to develop and deploy nuclear weapons is underpinned by the commitment of the few states that own this ultimate weapon to reduce their arsenals and work toward their complete elimination. The only way to curtail these dangerous trends is through concerted international efforts aimed at bringing the Ukraine War to a stable end, because as long as Russia stays on the war course, nuclear weapons remain the most potent instrument of its aggressive policy.