Putin is caught between the crippling cost of staying the war course and the incalculable risks of signing a deal on ceasing the hostilities but continuing confrontation with Europe, to which Ukraine is set to be firmly anchored. His usual tactic is to postpone a hard decision for as long as possible, but the United States and European Union are driving a hard bargain. Putin finds himself dependent upon Zelenskyy’s decision at an ideal moment and sufficient reward for agreeing on a retreat that is less consequential than the Russian retreat from Kherson in late 2022. Putin may try to ignore that gaining control over the completely devastated Donbas amounts to Russia’s strategic defeat in a war intended to subjugate Ukraine. Putin’s crime of aggression will, nevertheless, hang over the remaining years of his reign.
Baev, Pavel K. (2026) 'Energy truce' could be preamble to Ukraine peace deal, Eurasia Daily Monitor (1–2). 2 February.
