Peacemaking Russian style: Negotiations as continuation of war by other means

There is more to the Kremlin’s maneuvering around the seemingly unproductive efforts at achieving peace in Ukraine than just an intention to placate an increasingly impatient U.S. President Donald Trump. Even though the current Ukraine war is very different from all other conflicts Russia was involved in and sought to end since the breakup of the Soviet Union, experiences from, and the patterns developed in, multiple experiences in conflict management are informative for examining the Kremlin’s current policy. Moscow may decry any proposal that resembles the 2015 Minsk agreements, but it seeks, in essence, to negotiate an armistice that would grant it the ability to control the implementation of a ceasefire in Ukraine, influence political developments inside Ukraine, and exploit divisions in the Western coalition. Maintaining maximalist demands is perceived by the Kremlin as demonstrating strength, with the Kremlin’s biggest concern about accepting any compromise being not to show weakness. Achieving a deal that can be presented as a material victory is crucial not only for domestic purposes of ensuring regime stability, but also for boosting Russia’s global profile.