Russia struggles to find a response to US-Israel attack on Iran

There is speculation that Putin views the horrible death of the former Libyan ruler, Muammar Gaddafi, as a cautionary tale of the costs of regime change for authoritarian leaders. He may have tried to mitigate this possibility by granting sanctuary to former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. The United States’ capture of  Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro appeared to be a particular case, but the extermination of Khamenei and his family may convince Putin that the United States is willing to kill or capture the leader of a disagreeable state. Putin’s fears could escalate to paranoia, which may not be conducive to making a peace deal for Ukraine. Putin likely hopes that the United States will be preoccupied with Iran for many weeks to come, which might ease pressure on him to accept a compromise short of his maximalist war aims. He cannot fail to see, nevertheless, that Russia’s inability to help one of its few remaining strategic partners exposes its war-aggravated weakness, which is a poor negotiating position.