Russia’s current intentions and longer-term aims in developing the strategic partnership with Turkey are constantly revised and remain incoherent. The consequences of the new dependency upon exporting hydrocarbons and circumventing sanctions on import are as difficult to internalize for the Kremlin as is the fact of Turkey’s military superiority on the Black Sea maritime theatre. The imperative to expand legitimate as well as clandestine economic ties with Turkey clashes with the assumption of Ankara’s firm commitment to NATO presumed strategy on inflicting Russia a strategic defeat in the Ukraine war. Personal connections between Putin and Erdogan, which used to be a major compensator of tensions 7 caused by regional conflicts and a driver of upgrading the partnership, have visibly slackened due to mutual irritation.
Baev, Pavel K. (2025) Russia recalibrates its aims in strategic partnership with Turkey. Russian intentions and actions in the Black Sea: 5. Washington D.C.: Transatlantic Leadership Network.
