Moscow calculates benefits of the Gulf conflict, coming short

Moscow sticks to the view that the Iranian regime will withstand the U.S.–Israeli assault. It is worried, however, that this setback could make U.S. policy more hostile toward Russia’s ambitions. Volatility in global energy markets can boost Russia’s export revenues, but it cannot restore its position as a major supplier and a key influencer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) cartel, because its reputation as an energy superpower is damaged beyond repair by the fallout from its war against Ukraine. The shift of international attention away from this deadlocked and destructive war does not open any new opportunities for Moscow to achieve its maximalist goals, while its capacity for sustaining hostilities is dwindling due to the exhaustion of economic and human resources. The talks on a peace deal are in limbo, but the imperative to end the disastrous war is not weakened—and may even gain new strength from the much-needed opening of new formats and channels.