Moscow reconsidering Europe's role in ending war against Ukraine

The U.S. attack on Iran has made Putin believe that U.S. attention is changeable. Even though he clearly prefers engaging with Washington rather than Brussels, the Kremlin is increasingly likely to view working with Europe as the most reliable path to stable peace. Moscow sees Europe as a major threat to its autocratic regime, but has good reasons to assume that this intrinsically hostile neighbor would not attempt a “decapitating” strike on Russia. Putin has become so obsessed with personal safety that he cancelled his public appearances for the twelfth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea last week. Even street cameras are treated as a security risk. Staying on the war course has been Putin’s preferred option for many months, but the undeniable disappearance of military gains means that persisting with the demand for Ukraine’s retreat from all of Donbas will only dig Russia into a deeper hole.