Putin's war calculus keeps oscillating as spring offensive stumbles

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Baev, Pavel K. (2026) Putin's war calculus keeps oscillating as spring offensive stumbles, Eurasia Daily Monitor (1–2). 30 March.

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Domestic costs of sustaining the unproductive war effort keep growing. The calculus of possible benefits to be derived from the war in the Gulf does not go up in parallel with its duration. Putin appears to keep hoping that some turn of global events would break the logic of his unwinnable war and eliminate the imperative of making a rational choice for freezing the hostilities. In reality, these hopes result in more missed opportunities to escape a dead end of his own making.

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