From Frozen Conflict to Security Frontier? The Iran War and Cyprus’s Multilayered Security Dilemma

Policy brief

Hatay, Mete (2026) From Frozen Conflict to Security Frontier? The Iran War and Cyprus’s Multilayered Security Dilemma, PRIO Policy Brief, 1. NICOSIA: PCC.

The recent escalation of wars in the region, particularly the attack on Iran, has created a new security environment in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Cyprus is geographically very close to these developments. The island is not directly a party to the conflict, but its location and political situation render it very vulnerable to regional instabilities.


This policy brief argues that Cyprus is currently facing a multilayered security dilemma. Security pressures do not arise from a single source. Rather, they manifest simultaneously on several levels: in this case, global geopolitical competition, regional conflicts in the Middle East, and the island’s own unresolved political division.
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