Putin missed another potential chance to work toward peace

Putin’s phone call with Trump was an opportunity for him to regain momentum in the stalled peace process by showing the flexibility necessary to arrange a durable ceasefire. Instead, Putin suggested only the shortest possible cessation of hostilities to celebrate Victory Day on May 9, even if the Red Square parade is reduced to marching of a few infantry battalions. This short ceasefire could be seen as a response to the effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range strikes, which may mark a tentative step toward compromise and a test of the Russian public’s readiness to accept it. Putin’s calculus of risks generated by the continuation of the unwinnable war and by bringing it to an end keeps shifting, and his ambitions are apparently diminishing, while his worries about personal safety are growing. More opportunities to freeze the hostilities and then move toward a sequence of peace deals are certain to appear in the coming weeks, but each missed one digs deeper the hole into which Putin has delivered Russia.