Russia hits strategic ceiling with attack, strikes and bluffs

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Baev, Pavel K. (2026) Russia hits strategic ceiling with attack, strikes and bluffs, Eurasia Daily Monitor (1–2). 1 June.

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Putin still fancies peace talks from a position of strength and seemingly cannot comprehend the rapid decline into weakness. Each day of heavy-casualty and zero-yield attacks degrades Russia’s military capabilities. Each round of massive strikes on Ukraine brings a new package of aid and investment in European defense structures. Each attempt at nuclear blackmail exposes the disarray in Russian elites and society. Disoriented and fragmented as the society is, and apprehensive and egoistic as the elites are, they have one want in common—bringing the self-destructing war to an end. Standing in the way of this longing is a dangerous stance for Putin, but he has exhausted his arsenal of military means and diplomatic intrigues, while crossing the nuclear threshold is a step too risky for the aging autocrat obsessed with personal safety.

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