Attitudinal impacts of polarized protests: experimental evidence from abortion protests in Poland

Extensive literature suggests that protests can change citizens’ attitudes through several informational mechanisms. However, protests often occur around deeply polarized issues that are resistant to attitudinal change. In such contexts, do protests instead deepen political and affective divides? Leveraging evidence from an original, preregistered survey experiment conducted in Poland, this study examines how abortion protests influence citizens’ attitudes toward the abortion law, as well as their sentiments toward others holding different views on abortion. The findings indicate that while abortion protests do not significantly change respondents’ positions on the abortion issue itself, they increase in-group favoritism among anti-abortion sympathizers. No comparable effects are observed among pro-abortion supporters. These results highlight that the attitudinal impacts of protests extend beyond attitudes toward the protest issue itself, notably by strengthening positive in-group sentiments among status quo defenders. These insights are valuable for understanding counter-reactions to liberal protests and are especially relevant in the context of rising polarization and the ongoing illiberal backlash observed in many countries worldwide.