The Ukraine War takes new turns in the Black Sea theatre

The escalation of tensions in the Black Sea may be temporary, and Ukraine may be interested more in demonstrating the steady increase in its military capabilities than in permanently disrupting the maritime commerce. The risk calculus in Kyiv is fluid, and the desire to achieve tangible progress in the sporadic and fragmented peace process before the winter, which is certain to bring a further deterioration of the humanitarian crisis, is apparent. Hopes for a comprehensive peace deal are slim, and even an effectively monitored ceasefire looks like a far-fetched proposition. There is, nevertheless, significant space for a sequence of limited agreements freezing hostilities of particular kinds and reducing the risks of escalation. The Black Sea region with its rich interplay of various international interests offers a perfect opportunity for one or several of such agreements, underpinned by multilateral guarantees that would promote the prospect of demilitarization.