Only Moscow lacks new ideas for ending war against Ukraine

Neither domestic nor external pressures have yet forced Moscow to compromise despite Putin’s position being weaker than his public resolve suggests. His inner circle can dismiss calls for new ideas only at increasing cost. Battlefield losses, refinery fires, and a shrinking economy continue to erode the propaganda narrative that sustains the war at home, even as state media downplays the damage. U.S. and European mediators also face a significant obstacle because Moscow views them as extensions of Kyiv rather than neutral brokers, limiting their ability to translate growing Russian war-weariness into a negotiated settlement. Any agreement will likely fall well short of Putin’s original war aims. Prolonging a war Russia can no longer win outright may prove even more costly, making a reluctant compromise Moscow’s least damaging option.