Russia's virtual retreat in war against Ukraine is accelerating

Alongside hard facts on the casualties in the “kill zone” and dry statistics on economic capabilities are major determinants of the outcome of the war. Impressions, however, also shape Russia’s ability to sustain the war’s burden. Putin used to excel at conjuring political phantasms that answered the dreams of most of the Russian polity, but presently his performances depart too far from the increasingly disturbing reality. The stream of negative daily experiences flows in the same direction as perceptions of external developments, as Zelenskyy adds new energy to his posture of defiance, Trump apparently loses interest in communicating with Putin, and NATO produces a convincing show of unity. Russia’s material degradation is accelerated by mental fatigue, so the mobilization, which is strategically necessary for keeping the war going, could instead produce a meltdown.