The big geo-strategic picture of the Ukraine War is changing irrespective of the tactical stalemate in the battle for Donbas. At the start of the offensive, Russia encountered a far stronger Western unity in opposing the aggression than it had expected, and the hopes for splitting the pro-Ukraine coalition were revived only by President Trump’s cancellation of the US leadership. Now Moscow can presume that it is engaged in confrontation only with Europe, but its capacity for gaining a position of power is fast diminishing, while the opponents invest in rearmament and integration with Ukraine. Putin’s new best hope is that the EU will be incapacitated by internal divisions and bureaucratic squabbles. In order to break this calculus, the Europeans must build a wider coalition than just the EU, so that the UK will be one of the leaders, and states like Norway, Turkey, and even Canada are rightful members.
Baev, Pavel K. (2026) Is Europe up to Putin's challenge - and vice versa?, Global Panorama (1–3). 3 September.