Russian diesel deals and energy ceasefire expose Moscow's limits

The old war calculus that Putin refuses to revise presumes a steady escalation of trans-Atlantic disagreements, progressive growth of disunity in Europe, and fast erosion of Ukraine’s will to resist Russian aggression. These variables register oscillating changes, but the total does not support the assumption that Russia can outlast the Western coalition and bring Ukraine to submission. Zelenskyy exploits Putin’s miscalculations to gain the upper hand in political maneuvering despite disagreements with the U.S. administration and the rise of skepticism about aid to Ukraine in parts of Europe. Ukraine’s position of strength is incomprehensible to the Kremlin, for which declarations matter more than facts, but war has a cruel capacity to shatter political delusions.