Transnational Ethnic Dimensions of Third-Party Interventions in Civil Wars
Nome, Martin Austvoll (2006) Transnational Ethnic Dimensions of Third-Party Interventions in Civil Wars, presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA, 31 Aug–3 September.
Existing quantitative studies of transnational ethnic affinities and interstate conflict could benefit from greater systemacy when defining different forms of ethnic ties. This paper contributes towards this by presenting a typology of transnational ethnic affinities, defined by a dichotomous conception of whether ethnic groups have access to governmental power in their respective countries. Using the typology as a starting point, I derive hypotheses on the likelihood of third-party support for either government or rebels in civil wars. Empirical tests suggest that the typology of transnational ethnic affinities is a strong predictor of foreign support for civil war parties.