Towards a Democratic Civil Peace

Book Chapter

Hegre, Håvard;Gates, Scott;Ellingsen, Tanja; & Gleditsch, Nils Petter(2005) Towards a Democratic Civil Peace War. Library of International Relations. : (165–193).

Coherent democracies and harshly authoritarian states have few civil wars, and intermediate regimes are the most conflict-prone. Domestic violence also seems to be associated with political change,whether toward greater democracy or greater autocracy. Is the greater violence of intermediate regimes equivalent to the finding that states in political transition experience more violence? If both level of democracy and political change are relevant, to what extent is civil violence related to each? Based on an analysis of the period 1816–1992, we conclude that intermediate regimes are most prone to civil war, even when they have had time to stabilize from a regime change. In the long run, since intermediate regimes are less stable than autocracies, which in turn are less stable than democracies, durable democracy is the most probable end-point of the democratization process. The democratic civil peace is not only more just than the autocratic peace but also more stable.

Authors

Håvard Hegre

Håvard Hegre

Research Professor

Tanja Ellingsen

Tanja Ellingsen

Associate Professor of Political Science, NTNU

Scott Gates

Scott Gates

Research Professor. Editor, International Area Studies Review

Nils Petter Gleditsch

Nils Petter Gleditsch

Research Professor; Professor Emeritus of Political Science, NTNU