Klimakriger? En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget [Climate Wars? An Assessment of the Scientific Foundation]

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Urdal, Henrik; Ole Magnus Theisen; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug (2010) Klimakriger? En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget [Climate Wars? An Assessment of the Scientific Foundation], Norsk Statsvitenskapelig Tidsskrift 26(4): 297–320.

​The debate on security implications of climate change is characterized by strong opinions and dramatic scenarios, with a near-total absence of references to academic research on the topic. This article summarizes some plausible causal chains linking climate change to conflict, and evaluates their empirical foundation. Despite the existence of a few highly publicized studies supporting the notion of future ‘climate wars’, the literature is markedly contradictory and ambiguous. Paradoxically, global warming in recent decades has been accompanied by a decline in the number of on-going conflicts. The article discusses the limitations of earlier studies and identifies possible future lines of research that might plug the holes in our knowledge in this field, and thus contribute to reducing the gap between rhetoric and empirical knowledge.

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Authors

Henrik Urdal

Henrik Urdal

Director

Ole Magnus Theisen

Ole Magnus Theisen

Assistant Professor in Political Science at NTNU

Nils Petter Gleditsch

Nils Petter Gleditsch

Research Professor; Professor Emeritus of Political Science, NTNU

Halvard Buhaug

Halvard Buhaug

Research Professor at PRIO; Professor of Political Science, NTNU