​Yesterday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the second part of its Sixth Assessment Report. PRIO Research Professor Halvard Buhaug, who is a chapter lead author, presented findings at the Norwegian launch of the report.

​Halvard Buhaug is a chapter lead author in the forthcoming IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. ​The report will be launched Monday 28 February.

In a new study published in Nature Communications, PRIO researchers use a machine-learning analysis framework to identify leading predictors of contemporary asylum migration to the European Union. The study finds little evidence that climatic shocks or deteriorating economic conditions predict near-future arrivals of asylum seekers in Europe, contrasting commonly held notions of economy- and climate-driven asylum migrants. Instead, indicators capturing levels of political violence and violations of physical integrity rights in countries of origin are important predictors of asylum migration flows, suggesting that migrants are continuing to use the asylum system as intended – i.e., to seek international protection from a well-founded fear of persecution – despite the fact that most applicants ultimately are rejected refugee status. The article is a product of the ERC-funded CLIMSEC project and is published as open access.

Schutte, Sebastian; Jonas Vestby, Jørgen Carling & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration, Nature Communications 12: 2067.

Read the article (open access) here.

The Journal of Peace Research has just published a new special issue on ‘Security implications of climate change’ (January 2021), guest edited by Nina von Uexkull and Halvard Buhaug. The special issue contains 12 original research articles and viewpoint essays, supplemented by an introductory article by the guest editors that presents a review the state of the art. This is the second time JPR dedicates a special issue to climate change and conflict; the first time was in 2012, edited by Nils Petter Gleditsch. The new issue represents the most up-to-date collection of studies on the subject. Several articles, including the introduction, are available as open access.

Read the special issue here.

Next Tuesday December 8th at 14.00 CET (Oslo time) we will have the PRIO Annual Peace Address, this time with young peacebuilders Hajer Sharief and Ilwad Elman.

On this occasion we wanted to highlight projects and research that focus on youth activism. We're sharing our work on young engagement in political change, because social movements that turn into positive societal transformation are not only initiated by people in power, but very often are initiated or inspired by youth trying to improve their communities. Here are some of the projects showing the importance of youth in peacebuilding.