In a new study published in Nature Communications, PRIO researchers use a machine-learning analysis framework to identify leading predictors of contemporary asylum migration to the European Union. The study finds little evidence that climatic shocks or deteriorating economic conditions predict near-future arrivals of asylum seekers in Europe, contrasting commonly held notions of economy- and climate-driven asylum migrants. Instead, indicators capturing levels of political violence and violations of physical integrity rights in countries of origin are important predictors of asylum migration flows, suggesting that migrants are continuing to use the asylum system as intended – i.e., to seek international protection from a well-founded fear of persecution – despite the fact that most applicants ultimately are rejected refugee status. The article is a product of the ERC-funded CLIMSEC project and is published as open access.

Schutte, Sebastian; Jonas Vestby, Jørgen Carling & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration, Nature Communications 12: 2067.

Read the article (open access) here.

The Journal of Peace Research has just published a new special issue on ‘Security implications of climate change’ (January 2021), guest edited by Nina von Uexkull and Halvard Buhaug. The special issue contains 12 original research articles and viewpoint essays, supplemented by an introductory article by the guest editors that presents a review the state of the art. This is the second time JPR dedicates a special issue to climate change and conflict; the first time was in 2012, edited by Nils Petter Gleditsch. The new issue represents the most up-to-date collection of studies on the subject. Several articles, including the introduction, are available as open access.

Read the special issue here.

Next Tuesday December 8th at 14.00 CET (Oslo time) we will have the PRIO Annual Peace Address, this time with young peacebuilders Hajer Sharief and Ilwad Elman.

On this occasion we wanted to highlight projects and research that focus on youth activism. We're sharing our work on young engagement in political change, because social movements that turn into positive societal transformation are not only initiated by people in power, but very often are initiated or inspired by youth trying to improve their communities. Here are some of the projects showing the importance of youth in peacebuilding.

​A new study published in the journal Nature today assesses the role of climate in affecting the risk of armed conflict. Unlike conventional empirical analyses, this study is based on expert elicitation, where the data material is derived from in-depth interviews and structured group discussions among an interdisciplinary selection of scholars on climate-conflict relations. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries over the past century. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development, intergroup inequalities, and low state capabilities, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. PRIO researchers Halvard Buhaug and Nina von Uexkull took part in the elicitation and co-authored the study, which was facilitated by scholars at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University.

The workshop was co-organized by Nina von Uexkull and Halvard Buhaug and sponsored by the PRIO-based research project Climate Variability and Security Threats (CLIMSEC), funded by the European Research Council, and the Uppsala-based project on Climate Change, Food Insecurity and Violent Conflict, funded by the Swedish Research Council, SIDA, and FORMAS.